Climate change impacts in Scotland

A warming climate has the potential to improve growing conditions in Scotland and increase the productivity of our agriculture and forestry. However, climate change will also pose a number of threats, from more variable and extreme weather to the spread of pests and diseases, which may limit this potential.

As our climate changes, it will create new conditions that may allow existing pests and disease to spread and new threats to become established in Scotland. This may impact on the health of our people, animals, plants and ecosystems if risks are not properly managed.

We rely on soils to sustain biodiversity, support agriculture and forestry, regulate the water cycle and store carbon. Soils also have an historic environment value, as a proxy record of environmental change and for the preservation of archaeological deposits and artefacts. Soils and vegetation may be altered by changes to rainfall patterns and increased temperatures.

Climate change may affect the delicate balance of Scotland’s ecosystems and transform Scotland’s habitats and biodiversity, adding to existing pressures. Some distinctive Scottish species may struggle and could be lost, invasive non-native species may thrive, while a degraded environment may not be able to sustain productive land or water supply.

Climate change may have an impact on global food production. Although Scotland may be able to grow more food, this will not offset the impact global disruption has on us. The effects of increased volatility in the global commodity market due to exposure to extreme climatic events has an impact on supply and cost of food.

As our climate warms and rainfall patterns change, there may be increased competition for water between households, agriculture, industry and the needs of the natural environment. Summer droughts may become more frequent and more severe causing problems for water quality and supply.

Flooding can already have a devastating effect on those affected. With climate change likely to alter rainfall patterns and bring more heavy downpours, we expect flood risk to increase in the future. This could impact on properties and infrastructure – with serious consequences for our people, heritage, businesses and communities.

Sea level rise is already having a widespread impact on parts of Scotland’s coast. With this set to accelerate over the coming decades, we can expect to see more coastal flooding, erosion and coastline retreat – with consequences for our coastal communities and supporting infrastructure.

Our marine ecosystems – from plankton through to fish, mammals and seabirds – are already being affected by climate change alongside other pressures, particularly fishing. Changes will continue, with rising temperatures likely to change species and their distributions. The changes will present both threats and opportunities to our commercial fisheries and aquaculture.

Buildings and their surroundings can be damaged by severe weather like high winds and heavy rainfall, as well as water penetration during prolonged wet intervals causing damp, mould and condensation. Maintenance is important to ensure weather resistance and ventilation. Green roofs and permeable surfaces can reduce localised flooding.

A warming climate may provide more opportunity to be outdoors and enjoy a healthy and active lifestyle, while reducing mortality in winter. However, it could affect patterns of disease and other health issues. Climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt the lives of individuals and communities, limiting access to vital services and impacting on people’s physical and mental health.

The changing climate is already altering our unique Scottish landscape and threatening our historic environment through coastal erosion, flooding and wetter, warmer conditions. The increased pace of climate change presents challenges to all those involved in the care, protection and promotion of the historic environment.

Severe weather can disrupt energy supply to local communities and business. Developing local community energy and heat generation, like a biomass boiler using distillery and forestry bi-products, can diversify supply and increase local resilience. Climate change can also impact power distribution, with impacts ranging from damage caused by extreme weather events, to reduced transmission efficiency occurring as a result of temperature fluctuations.

Climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt transport, energy and communication networks in Scotland and around the world. This could impact on markets, affect supply chains and raise insurance costs.

Our energy, transport, water, and ICT networks support services are vital to our health and well-being and economic prosperity. The effect of climate change on these infrastructure systems will be varied. They are likely to be impacted by an increase in disruptive events such as flooding, landslides, drought, and heatwaves. Our infrastructure is closely inter-linked and failure in any area can lead to wider disruption across these networks.